It does not appear that increased sustained production of new manufactured ammo is going to result in pre-pandemic prices for ammunition.

Many calibers are now flowing into stores, but prices are "sticky" and have either stabilized at the new price threshold, or remain much higher that pre-pandemic levels.

22LR appears to be stabilizing between .09 -.12 cents per round. It can be found cheaper in stores, when it can be found. But commercial availability is still limited.

9mm prices vary wildly. As do .45ACP, 12GA, 5.56, 7.62x51, 7.62x39.

My prediction: Due to demand levels during this prolonged pandemic period where ammunition briskly sold at the new price levels, I predict that with the increased cost of raw materials, inflation, and price "stickyness", we will likely never again see pre-pandemic price levels for the most calibers of ammunition.

OEM prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future.

You Sir, are correct.

Even if we get a R in the Whitehouse next time around, it will take 8 years for the supply to fill the demand -- now that patriots have been trained to hoard ammo.

If we get a D in the Whitehouse, all bets are off. And with the inherit fraud of the current situation...

Well, in short...We Are Doomed.

I've seen first hand some of the "tricks" stores use when selling ammo to maximize profits. They'll routinely only put out a certain amount of any given caliber pricing it just below market value. When in reality they have pallets of it in the back. They'll wait for the (insert whatever sales event) and put 2 pallets out (as if they suddenly got a huge shipment) and discount it by like $2 box or whatever. All the while promoting it as "Get it while you can" ON SALE !!!
People who are either new to shooting and gun ownership, or just late to the game of "prepping" are paying a HUGE price right now literally in ammo and firearm costs.