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#1607037 - 03/14/20 05:55 PM So what are we learning from this Corona virus??
VaGunTrader Offline
The Dictator

Registered: 11/19/08
Posts: 3798
Loc: Dinwiddie County Va
City or County: Sutherland - 23885
A lot going on with this Corona virus. Most I haven't seen for myself, just read about it. All the closings...schools, colleges, businesses, etc. Stories of supermarkets and retailers running out of certain products.

So lets all discuss what we've seen and experienced. What have we learned. What would we have done differently knowing what we know now. What will do in the future based off of what we are learning now?

I went to a Publix grocery store today. First time I've been to a store in about a week. Of course no water or toilet paper. Sold out of rice. Most of the buy-one-get-one-free cereals and other dry goods were sold out. Frozen vegetables and eggs were low. Cleaning supplies were sold out.

Personally I think this Corona isnt all that, a drop in the bucket to a real virus. So lets brainstorm what we can do to better prepare ourselves in the event of a real pandemic.
_________________________
When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.
Thomas Jefferson

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#1607062 - 03/14/20 07:44 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
toughtom12 Offline
Gun fool

Registered: 11/15/11
Posts: 923
Loc: Centreville/Manassas
City or County: Manassas
We need better funding for CDC supplies at the federal level, and we need something similar at state level. The feds also need to do a better job at shutting down travel immediately to and from areas with new infectious diseases. As far as normal people go, we need to stockpile more normal supplies and not just the fun and cool stuff. I've got an imbalance in my weapon to food ratio, and I have a feeling many members on here are the same.

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#1607084 - 03/14/20 09:00 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
DameLeche Offline
Single barrel

Registered: 08/05/19
Posts: 34
Loc: Virginia, United States
City or County: Lynchburg, VA
From all the reading I've done so far, I believe that the degree of devastation that could result from the virus depends on (A) the rate by which people are infected (B) and the order of types (based on survivability) of people infected.

(B)(1) For example, if the type of people infected in the first wave of the virus are the most vulnerable to it, they are least likely to survive. (2) I imagine that about the same is true if the wave indiscriminately infects all types within the first wave.

Although, the difference between (B)(1) and (2) is that in (2) the elderly would have less care in the beginning; but if tended to in both cases, (1) would experience less casualty, but still amount to about the same once the healthy caretakers also become infected. Neither of these possible outcomes is as positive as situation (B)(3): With the most vulnerable isolated from the disease at home, the most suitable to recover may be exposed to the virus to then recover and likewise be immunized to then benefit as caretakers of the more vulnerable if/when they capture the illness afterwards.

The difference between courses (B)(1), (2) and (3) is that (3) optimizes care for the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, the rest (being the least vulnerable) in any of the three possible courses under (B) will be equally as likely to recover. The question addressed is when the best time is for the least and most vulnerable to be exposed, respectively.

(B)(1) and (3) are difficult to control as is. The question of (A) seems like the factor least controllable. Basically, with (A) being the rate by which the infection passes, attempted application of (B)(3) becomes more or less possible depending on the slowness or quickness by which the virus spreads.

For example, the course of (B)(3) dictates that there is: first, a separation of the most and least vulnerable; second, a containment of the vulnerable in a resourceful setting, followed by the exposure of the least vulnerable to the virus, and their expected recovery; lastly, and hopefully still months before winter season, the elderly may interact with the recovered without objective of becoming infected so that if infected, the sickness is still more manageable than if caught during the winter when everyone's immune system is even less responsive.

With that summary of the phases to (B)(3), you might see how each phase is benefited with a slower rate of the spread. According to my memory of epidemiologist Michael Osterholm's discussion with Joe Rogan, the rate of the spread seems to be doubling. That's the kicker to the otherwise feasible course of (B)(3).

Those are my broader thoughts at the moment.


Edited by Nick_Fall (03/14/20 10:58 PM)

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#1610640 - 03/23/20 08:31 AM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: DameLeche]
jr45 Offline
Gun fool

Registered: 11/30/08
Posts: 869
Loc: VA
City or County: Stafford
I’m learning that our rights are so easily pushed aside when there is a panic or in the name of a “pandemic”. Most of it is coming from state and local tyrants.

Constitutional law
NJ closes all and plans to take action on its citizens

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#1611410 - 03/24/20 05:51 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: jr45]
jr45 Offline
Gun fool

Registered: 11/30/08
Posts: 869
Loc: VA
City or County: Stafford
Also, a crisis is a perfect time for the powers that be to create an “excuse” to justify anything, even if illegal.

Sheriff in NC cancels conceal permit applications
LA Sheriff orders gun stores closed

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#1613234 - 03/28/20 08:26 AM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: jr45]
jr45 Offline
Gun fool

Registered: 11/30/08
Posts: 869
Loc: VA
City or County: Stafford
More actions by local Govs shows they have no regard to the constitution. Are we, as Americans, to accept this in the name of feeling safe? How much longer before VA becomes a RI, NY, CA, IL, etc.?

Rhode Island hunting down New Yorkers

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#1613245 - 03/28/20 08:55 AM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
UBETRUN Offline
Marksman

Registered: 01/02/12
Posts: 372
Loc: Stafford, VA
City or County: Stafford
The mortality rate in China is currently, if you believe them, roughly 4%.

The mortality rate in Italy is currently almost 11%.

The mortality rate in Iran is currently about 7%.

The mortality rate in France is just over 6%.

Government officials all over the globe are making lock down and shut down decisions with no thought whatsoever on how to unwind those decisions while people are still getting sick.

The President's 15 day recommendation to flatten the curve has turned into everyone holding out for a completely flat curve.

If the globe shuts down for a couple months, and I don't see anything that portends otherwise despite some smarter leaders warning of whole economies crashing, social unrest and starvation will end up MUCH bigger threats than this virus.

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#1614656 - 03/30/20 05:59 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: UBETRUN]
ktyhawk Offline
General Nuisance

Registered: 11/20/08
Posts: 3197
Loc: New Kent
City or County: New Kent County
I'll tell you what the government is learning from this.... just how easy it is to control the masses if you scare them enough. We've got people calling the police because there may be more than 10 people in a store or at someone's house. SMFH.

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#1615312 - 03/31/20 11:20 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: ktyhawk]
VaGunTrader Offline
The Dictator

Registered: 11/19/08
Posts: 3798
Loc: Dinwiddie County Va
City or County: Sutherland - 23885
Originally Posted By: ktyhawk
I'll tell you what the government is learning from this.... just how easy it is to control the masses if you scare them enough. We've got people calling the police because there may be more than 10 people in a store or at someone's house. SMFH.

maybe this is just a test
_________________________
When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.
Thomas Jefferson

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#1616165 - 04/02/20 05:45 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
jr45 Offline
Gun fool

Registered: 11/30/08
Posts: 869
Loc: VA
City or County: Stafford
Now NY has “authorized” state police to seize medical supplies from business and facilities. Not much more of a step needed to “authorize” a seize personal preparations! What’s next...You have extra food? Sized. You have extra fuel? Sized. You have masks? Sized. Don’t think this can’t happen here in VA. I truly believe we are witnessing the end of America that we used to know.

NY authorities seizures

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#1620348 - 04/10/20 09:16 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
dustydog Offline
drooling old single shot fanatic

Registered: 06/19/09
Posts: 2189
Loc: Chester
City or County: Chester
Well,as a member of the 4% club (age,imfirmity,or pre-existing condition),my observations are as follows:

As**ats gonna be as**ats.

If they be preppers(one guy at work is self quarantining for the next 3 months out of fear),fundies(god gonna take us home and leave all the people we hate behind),bigots(THEY started it (insert race/ethencity]they gonna die),profiteers (gonnas get $200 for my RG .22 Short!),LAMOE (pronounce LAY-MOE,i.e. "last man on earth") "I WILL SURVIVE AND RAISE A NEW NATION!",etc.,etc.....

SWEET F**K,DON'T YOU T**DS UNDERSTAND THE GERM PRINCIPLE OF CONTAGION? Nature is taking a swing at us(yes,we are in the foodchain too),there is no conspiracy,plot,invasion,etc.


_________________________
"Why the H..l do they call it 'common sense'? I ain't seen much of it in my lifetime." R.L. "Junior" Byiers

Don't blame me if you find your life wanting,it takes sand to bet it all on one card.

Waiting for snow to cover my tracks.

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#1623449 - 04/17/20 08:29 AM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
6.5x55 Offline
Proximity matters

Registered: 12/09/08
Posts: 3516
Loc: Ashland
City or County: Hanover
The quoted death rates are inflated because so little testing and so many mild cases.

Yesterday's articles showed it may have been from the lab in Wuhan since China is opening up wer markets again.
Deaths should decline if treatment to stop the cytokine storm with anti inflammatory drugs and vitamin C is used early on.

Northam is a tyrant. Never take public health advice from a man who thinks that putting newborns to death is acceptable.
_________________________
Joe's band practicing in the basement

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#1623790 - 04/17/20 07:39 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: 6.5x55]
Mark S Offline
General Nuisance

Registered: 04/29/10
Posts: 3871
Loc: Fairfax county
City or County: Fairfax
Originally Posted By: 6.5x55
The quoted death rates are inflated because so little testing and so many mild cases.

Yesterday's articles showed it may have been from the lab in Wuhan since China is opening up wer markets again.
Deaths should decline if treatment to stop the cytokine storm with anti inflammatory drugs and vitamin C is used early on.

Northam is a tyrant. Never take public health advice from a man who thinks that putting newborns to death is acceptable.


+1

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#1623847 - 04/17/20 09:44 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
VaGunTrader Offline
The Dictator

Registered: 11/19/08
Posts: 3798
Loc: Dinwiddie County Va
City or County: Sutherland - 23885
This


Attachments
FB_IMG_1586042601017.jpg


_________________________
When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.
Thomas Jefferson

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#1623850 - 04/17/20 10:07 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
wolfman Offline
SB lurker

Registered: 09/04/10
Posts: 382
Loc: Orange, VA
City or County: Orange
The motto of our current state administration should be let no natural disaster go unexploited.
_________________________
What Would Elmer Keith Do?
Buy Black Rifle Coffee!
Got any Contender barrels?
GOA

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#1634258 - 05/09/20 04:12 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
chuckjordan2 Offline
Double barrel

Registered: 12/20/11
Posts: 81
Loc: Virginia
City or County: Henrico

What we learned: people don't cook like Grandma cooked.
Meaning: flour and sugar were available in supply (bulk especially). And I don't mean the fancy non-GMO, gluton-free, designer flour in 1lb bags. Just good ole flour. Bought a 40 lb sack. And a 40 lb bag of sugar too. My wife cooks from scratch and makes her own dough (biscuits, buns, bread, etc).

Rice: Went fast, however, the mom & pop Asian stores still had the better brands (and fresh) rice. Bought 40lb as we eat rice daily.

Growing up in Chicago I learned: shop early and shop often (or was that vote early?). Being the 'early bird' the lines were short.

mom & pop stores not price gouging. I will remember them in the future.

After the 2008-2009 Great Recession, nobody saved a penny (for a rainy day). 1/3 of US renters failed to pay rent in April 1st. I haven't seen the number for May 1st. BTW, I've been penny pinching since'86.

Summary: The real show will not begin until 2021. Mark my words, that will be when the financial mess will occur, separating the men from the boys.

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#1634968 - 05/11/20 10:36 AM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: chuckjordan2]
Mark S Offline
General Nuisance

Registered: 04/29/10
Posts: 3871
Loc: Fairfax county
City or County: Fairfax
Originally Posted By: chuckjordan2

What we learned: people don't cook like Grandma cooked.
Meaning: flour and sugar were available in supply (bulk especially). And I don't mean the fancy non-GMO, gluton-free, designer flour in 1lb bags. Just good ole flour. Bought a 40 lb sack. And a 40 lb bag of sugar too. My wife cooks from scratch and makes her own dough (biscuits, buns, bread, etc).

Rice: Went fast, however, the mom & pop Asian stores still had the better brands (and fresh) rice. Bought 40lb as we eat rice daily.

Growing up in Chicago I learned: shop early and shop often (or was that vote early?). Being the 'early bird' the lines were short.

mom & pop stores not price gouging. I will remember them in the future.

After the 2008-2009 Great Recession, nobody saved a penny (for a rainy day). 1/3 of US renters failed to pay rent in April 1st. I haven't seen the number for May 1st. BTW, I've been penny pinching since'86.

Summary: The real show will not begin until 2021. Mark my words, that will be when the financial mess will occur, separating the men from the boys.


I agree that there is going to a big financial fallout from this, but some of the numbers can be deceiving.
For instance, while 1/3 of the people did not pay their rent in the first week of April, that's only part of the story. About 85% of the people pay some or all of their rent in the week of the month - or 15% don't so that means that number doubled. So yes, a big increase, but also, most people are not REQUIRED to pay their full rent in the first week of the month.

I watch mortgage payments pretty closely and there was not as big an uptick last month as expected in late or nonpayment (doesn't mean there won't be later). The fast government action thru FHA and declaration of a national emergency allowing automatic forbearance requests may mean we don't see the foreclosures we did after 2008...hopefully.


Edited by Mark S (05/11/20 10:38 AM)

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#1635558 - 05/12/20 03:07 PM Re: So what are we learning from this Corona virus?? [Re: VaGunTrader]
shootergdv Offline
Marksman

Registered: 07/08/10
Posts: 253
Loc: VA
City or County: Rustburg
Only been a couple months and we've gone total socialist with free money/etc. because folks forgot what most here know - ALWAYS have enough money/etc. put by for at least 2 months and preferably 6 . Longer than that, I have no problem helping out, but geez, people.
What's really gonna PO me is government at all levels will be looking to raise property taxes/etc. to make up for all the paper they're printing.

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